This iteration of the activity was written for a 9th grade earth science classroom but could also be successful with older high schoolers or advanced middle school students. The changes that have been made to this version focus on accessibility and student-paced investigation. The ActivityIn this activity, students work with 7 graphs, each showing a climate model in which only one forcing factor (orbital changes, solar variation, volcanic eruptions, aerosol pollution, greenhouse gases, land use, and ozone depletion) changes while the rest are held constant. From there, they layer those factors together, compare them against the real measured temperature record, and work out for themselves which ones actually match what we've observed over the past century. The goal is that students can gain a deeper understanding of the different mechanisms that impact Earth's climate and how greenhouse gases are the clear factor that is responsible for the warming trend over the past 100 years. To start the activity, each group of students should begin with a set of 12 climate model cards and organize them into three piles based on the symbol in the top left corner: Measured Temperature (thermometer icon), Forcing Factors (A-G), and Combined (1-3) The rest of this post will walk through the different steps of the activity with the student questions to help focus their investigation. Measured Temperature CardsThe first two cards represent a measured temperature anomaly as a global average across the past century. These are actually the only measured data in the set that don't come from a computer model and they will be used as a comparison point when analyzing the climate models later on.
Check-in Questions1. How much has the temperature changed in the 100 years between 1900 and 2000? 2. You show your younger brother this temperature graph and he comments that the data must be fake because there is no way that the average temperature is less than 1°C. How could you respond? Climate Model CardsEach of the climate model cards isolates a single forcing factor and graphs the temperature anomaly as if that factor were the only variable changing for the past century. The cards have a short description of the forcing factor on the back that will be helpful in responding to the check-in questions included in the activity. Students should notice that these graphs all have the same x-axis (year) but VERY different y-axis (temperature anomaly) scaling. More on this when comparing the graphs later on...
Check-in Questions3. In what layer of the atmosphere can you find the ozone layer? 4. Which three forcing factors impact the albedo/reflection of solar radiation? 5. Which of the forcing factors is responsible for periodic ice ages? 6. How many major volcanoes erupted between the years of 1960 and 2000? How do you know? 7. Which of the following is not considered a major greenhouse gas? a. Methane b. Carbon Dioxide c. Nitrous Oxide d. Hydrogen Students then use the general shape of the graphs to complete the table below by marking (✅) if each forcing factor has an overall cooling effect, warming effect, or no major effect on the global temperature. Students are usually surprised to learn that there are some factors that actually make the climate cooler.  It can be challenging to determine the relative impact of each of the factors when the graphs are all automatically scaled to fill the space provided. Putting these graphs on the same axis makes these factors much easier to compare.
Combining Forcing FactorsEach of the models (A-G) isolates one forcing factor to help compare them against each other. A helpful way to put some order to the data is to combine the models together while also isolating the natural forcings (A-C) from the human/anthropogenic factors (D-G). This will be helpful to see how adding the factors together results in the best-fitting approximation relative to the measured data. The typical takeaway is that students identify that natural factors are simply unable to explain the extent of the warming shown in the measured data. Students use the graph cards combining the forcing factors (1-3) to answer the following questions Graphs 1 and 2 combine the Human and Natural factors together to make one single graph. Use the table below to identify (✅) which factors are considered to be “Human” and which ones are “Natural”  9. Which factors seem to have the largest impact on the global temperature? Natural Forcings or Human Activity? 10. Looking at graph 3 combining ALL forcing factors, what is the cause of the downward spikes? 11. Which of the combined factors is closest in its prediction to the measured temperature over the same timeframe? Natural Forcings, Human Activity, or All Forcing Factors? 12. Looking back on all of the data, which single forcing factor (A-G) is the most significant contributor for the rise in the average temperature for the past 100 years? AcknowledgementsThis activity has been a favorite of mine since Dave Fish from the Perimeter Institute shared it at a session that I attended at the 2016 NSTA Convention in Atlanta. The work that he and the rest of the perimeter team have done for the "Evidence for Climate Change" resource is the backbone for this iteration of the activity. ReflectionI have used some variation of these climate models over the past decade and I typically guided my students through a series of questions as they each worked with their own set of cards. I have been longing to make this more student-led with questions that help direct their attention to important details and connections as they go. This way students have more control over their investigation and it frees me up for more informal and deeper questioning as I wander around the room. I've now used this iteration of the activity for my first two years of teaching 9th grade earth science. It's been great to see it hit the learning targets while also giving students more room to learn interactively. Files
These should be printed in color front to back with a short side flip (just make sure that the descriptions match the graph). I recommend printing in cardstock or laminating to make these sets reusable from class to class or year to year. They work best when cut into 12 individual cards (I make my first hour do the cutting for me ;))
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